News

Please Help Me Measure Charitable Giving

Please mark your gifts "In Honor of" Poologic so that the V Foundation. can identify those gifts. There is no need for you to provide a snail-mail address for the honoree. I will get summary numbers from the V Foundation and they will not reveal any of your personal informaton.

Java plugin no longer required

Poologic no longer requires a Java plugin. Poologic now can be used on tablets and smart phones.

LRMC Not Available

The first 2014 data load with LRMC included was not accurate.LRMC probabilities will not be available this year.

Warning: Play-in Games Estimated in Early Data Loads

If you use Poologic results before the play-in (aka new 1st Round) games, you might find it recommending a team that loses in the new 1st Round.Probably best to wait for a later data load, after the new 1st Round is complete.

 

But the last play-in game will not start till 9 PM on Wednesday, so the last Poologic data load will be much later this year.

 

(For 2011, the Vegas spreads and totals for the Wednesday games had to be estimated in the last data load because they were not available as of8 AM EDT on Thursday)

The Contrarian Full Court Press

Clair and Letscher published a paper in 2007 that applies contrarian considerations to the entire pool entry sheet for standard scoring pools.David Letscher Homepage: NCAA Tournamenthas been providing optimized entry sheets based on this paper for the last few years.He has been updating the site after the play-in game.See David Letscherís site for a link to the paper.

 

If you want to combine the Clair and Letscherís strategy with the multiple-entry strategy, try this hack: Use the ROI Calculator to pick multiple champs and promote those champs to the top of one of David Letscherís recommended entry sheets.

Java Applets Donít Load?

How do I test whether Java is working on my computer?

 

Microsoft competes with Java, so new computers may not have Java pre-loaded.

Futures Model No Longer Supported

My data source for the Futures Model went belly up, so I am not supporting it this year.

New Paper on the Contrarian Strategies

Published in Chance about a year ago:

http://stat.duke.edu/~jbn9/papers/Niem_Carl_Alex_cont_2008.pdf

New and Improved Probability Models

I have added two Logistic Regression/Markov Chain Models (LRMCD,LRMCP) from Kvam and Sokol [1] and I have switched to using the Sagarin Predictor ratings to create the Original and Sagarin models. All four of these model should be improvements over all the 2006 models except possibly the Futures models. This claim is based on statistical tests presented in Kvam and Sokol, and other testing of the Sagarin Predictor using Kvam and Sokol's methods. There is too little data available to test the Futures model vs other models.

I cannot say that any of the LRMCD, LRMCP, improved Original, improved Sagarin, or Futures models have performed better than the others because the historical data available to me (including Kvam and Sokol's results) do not resolve them. The Kvam and Sokol provide evidence that the Vegas model (which they call "KG") has underperformed the LRMCD and LRCMP models.

New Scoring Options

You can now specify that standard scoring are not awarded for upsets by indicating "Don't award standard points for upsets". By default, standard scoring points are awarded for upsets.

I have added "Bonus" scoring factors and a seed "Limit" for each round. Bonus points are awarded when the winning seed is greater or equal to the limit. The bonus points are awarded in addition to the standard points.

May not Support All Models

I may configure Poologic so that some models mentioned in the web pages may not be available in the drop down menus. This will allow me to load Poologic with some models when the data for others is not available.

Poologic Discusson Group

I have created a Poologic discussion group. I will be participating in the discussion group. I hope it becomes a good place for you to gain a better understanding of how to win your pool. And, I hope to get ideas about how to improve Poologic.

A Map to the Overbet Teams

Yahoo Tournament Pick'em is providing frequency distributions for pool sheet entries in there nationwide pool. The 2005 link is here and the same link may work for later years.

Use the Pick'em distribution for the final round to estimate the entries for teams in the ROI Calculator. Take the percentage from the Yahoo distribution and multiply it by your estimate of the total opponent entries in your pool. For instance, if you estimate 150 opponents and Duke has been picked by 30% of the Pick'em entries to win, then estimate that 45 of your opponents will pick Duke.

But, you may want to try to calibrate for localized favorites since the Pick'em data is based on nationwide entries. You might need to keep track of how the Pick'em distribution compares to your local pool distribution over repeated tournaments to come up with a calibration factor.

If calibration is too much work or not possible, then just follow the practice of never betting a localized favorite as champ even if the ROI Calculator puts it among the top ROI teams.

[1] "Logistic Regression/Markov Chain Model for NCAA Basketball" by Paul Kvam and Joel S. Sokol (Naval Research Logistics Vol. 53, No 8, December 2006, pp. 788-803)